Asia-N. America rates stabilize as Asia-Europe prices continue falling

Transpacific ocean rates slowed their downward trend this week with prices remaining level. Carriers have increased the number of canceled transpacific sailings for the coming weeks as demand decreases and the slowdown in rate decreases could be an early sign that the reduction in capacity is starting to have an impact. 

Carriers are increasing the number of blanked sailings from Asia to Europe as well, though rates fell an additional 8% on this lane this week as import volumes continue to decline. 

Ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO speculated this week that market forces could push ocean rates below 2019 levels in the near term. Nonetheless, he believes that demand trends and per-unit costs will ultimately drive rates to settle above pre-pandemic levels.  

Freightos Air Index data show air cargo rates from China to both Europe and the US are level at a time they were climbing last year, and are also significantly lower than a year ago. China – US rates of $5.50/kg are 48% lower than last year, while China – N. Europe prices of $5.15/kg are 25% lower than last October. 

Air cargo peak season typically starts in early November, but flat rates contribute to the skepticism that there will be a peak season surge this year. Falling demand could also combine with increases in capacity from recovering passenger travel to push rates down further.