Shipping & Freight Cost Increases, Current Shipping Issues, and Shipping Container Shortage [2026]

New Tariffs Update

Tariff uncertainty is still weighing heavily on importers, and clearer answers don’t look imminent. The Supreme Court is expected to review the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), but a decision likely won’t come until well into next year. In the meantime, the White House has signaled it is preparing alternative legal paths to keep tariffs in place even if the Court rules that IEEPA is not a valid mechanism. Targeted exemptions for some agricultural products and new trade frameworks with partners in South America and Switzerland point to a strategy of fine-tuning the system, rather than rolling tariffs back.

At the same time, the trade war continues to reshape how and where goods move. Some sourcing and air cargo volumes have shifted toward Southeast Asia, while China remains a central player as exporters redirect more e-commerce shipments to Europe. The US decision to end its de minimis exemption earlier this year initially disrupted China–US air volumes, but much of that demand has since adjusted rather than disappeared. For importers, the result is an air cargo market that still feels expensive and unpredictable, with peak-season spikes on some lanes and only uneven relief elsewhere, making budgeting and planning for the year ahead especially challenging.

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Red Sea Shipping Disruption News & Updates

There are signs that container traffic could begin returning to the Red Sea, but a full shift back still doesn’t look imminent. The release of captive crew members by the Houthis and announcements from CMA CGM and its Ocean Alliance partners that some escorted services will use the Suez Canal have raised expectations that a transition may be getting closer. At the same time, Maersk has pushed back on reports of an immediate return, suggesting recent optimism may have gotten ahead of reality.

Even a limited return would likely be bumpy at first. Vessels that have been taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope would arrive earlier than current schedules allow, leading to vessel bunching and added congestion at European ports that are already under strain. Carriers say they plan to phase any return gradually, starting with smaller vessels, but some expect customer pressure could speed things up. In the near term, this kind of reset could create delays and short-lived rate pressure before schedules and capacity settle back into place.

2025 Red Sea Outlook

As the industry looks ahead to 2026, the Red Sea disruption is no longer viewed as a temporary shock but as a condition the market has largely adapted to. Even with most Asia-Europe services still routing around the Cape of Good Hope, container rates through 2025 remained well below 2024 levels. This points to a clear shift in what’s driving the market: fleet growth and overcapacity are now outweighing the impact of longer transit times.

When container traffic eventually returns to the Suez Canal in a more meaningful way, more than two million TEU of capacity will be released back into an already oversupplied market. While the transition period could bring congestion and short-term volatility, the longer-term effect is likely continued downward pressure on rates and tougher capacity management for carriers. For importers, this means the Red Sea is shaping how routes and schedules are structured heading into 2026, rather than driving sustained rate increases the way it did at the height of the crisis.

For more about the potential return to the Red Sea, click here.

Ocean Freight Market Updates, Shipping Costs, and Delays

Ocean rates on the transpacific have been anything but predictable. After falling to year lows in early October, carriers pushed through a couple of rounds of rate increases that briefly lifted West Coast prices to around $3,000/FEU in early November. Those gains faded quickly. By the end of the month, rates had dropped back into the $1,700–$1,900/FEU range to the West Coast and toward $3,000/FEU on East Coast routes. Early December has brought another attempt at modest increases, but with volumes at some of their weakest levels of the year, it is not clear prices will stick.

Asia–Europe lanes have been steadier by comparison, largely due to tighter capacity management. Rates have held near $2,500/FEU to Northern Europe and around $3,000/FEU to the Mediterranean after carriers blanked sailings through October and November. Even so, the broader trend is clear: rates across major trade lanes are well below last year’s levels, despite ongoing disruptions elsewhere in the market. For smaller importers, this means short-term price bumps are still likely, but sustained, peak-style rate spikes have been harder for carriers to maintain, making timing and flexibility more important than locking in assumptions far in advance. With Lunar New Year approaching, additional blanked sailings and last-minute schedule changes are likely, making early planning and extra lead time especially important for shipments moving in the weeks before and after the holiday.

 See our Lunar New Year 2026 Shipping Guide, based on Freightos Marketplace data.

Ocean freight rates as of December 9, 2025:

• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) rose 22% to $2,096/FEU.   
• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) rose 2% to $2,930/FEU.
• Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) were steady at $2,464/FEU.
• Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) rose 15% to $3,367/FEU.

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Ocean Freight Market Forecast for 2025 – Q4 Outlook

Looking ahead to 2026, the ocean freight market is expected to remain shaped less by short-term disruptions and more by structural factors. Chief among them is overcapacity. Even after two years of network adjustments, carriers are still grappling with more vessel space than demand can absorb, and fleet growth continues to outweigh volume growth across major trade lanes.

To deal with this mismatch, carriers are likely to keep cutting back capacity where they can and testing smaller, more frequent price increases. These steps may help limit the biggest swings in the market, but they don’t change the underlying reality of too much available capacity. As a result, pricing pressure is likely to continue, with ups and downs driven more by how carriers adjust their networks than by a strong rebound in demand.

For small importers, the 2026 outlook points to a market where flexibility matters more than forecasting precision. Sudden shifts in capacity or routing can still cause short-term disruption, but the broader trend suggests that elevated rates driven by tight capacity are less likely to return. Planning for change – rather than stability – remains the most realistic approach as the market continues to adjust.

Air Freight Market Update, Delays, Cost Increases, and Forecast for 2025

Looking ahead to 2026, air freight is shaping up to remain a market defined by shifting trade flows rather than a clear return to stability. Trade policy changes over the past year have already pushed e-commerce and manufacturing volumes to move around the map, with Southeast Asia continuing to see stronger air cargo demand as some production and fulfillment shift away from China. At the same time, China remains a major driver of air freight volumes, particularly as exporters redirect more shipments toward Europe.

These shifts have not led to a sustained breakdown in the market, largely because capacity has moved alongside demand. When volumes dipped on some lanes, aircraft were repositioned to others, helping prevent prolonged shortages or gluts. That pattern is expected to continue into 2026. While peak periods can still bring sharp rate increases – especially on Asia–US lanes – the broader outlook points to ongoing volatility rather than consistently rising prices.

For small importers, this means air freight in 2026 is likely to remain expensive at times, but not uniformly so. Sudden spikes tied to peak season, policy changes, or capacity shifts are still a risk, while quieter periods may offer brief windows of relief. Planning ahead, staying flexible on routes and timing, and watching market signals closely will remain essential as air cargo continues to adjust to an uneven global trade environment.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

• China – N. America weekly prices rose 18% to $7.63/kg.
• China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 12% to $3.64/kg. 
• N. Europe – N. America weekly prices rose 2% to $2.48/kg.

Amazon Shipping Costs in 2026

Keeping up with door-to-door pricing for Amazon FBA shipping can be a hassle. With data from thousands of weekly pricing points from freight forwarders, we’ve developed a weekly index of freight prices including for Less than Container Load (LCL), Full Container Load (FCL), and air cargo, from major export cities in southeast Asia to the most popular Amazon fulfillment centers in the US.

Want to know what the rates are instantly? Check out Freightos.com’s FBAX, the Amazon FBA freight index.

With data from thousands of weekly pricing points from freight forwarders, we’ve developed a weekly index of freight prices including for Less than Container Load (LCL), Full Container Load (FCL), and air cargo, from major export cities in southeast Asia to the most popular Amazon fulfillment centers in the US.

Read up on how Amazon sellers can deal with rapidly changing consumer demands as well as inventory challenges HERE.

When Will Shipping Costs Go Down?

Shipping rates have dropped significantly in recent months, but high costs and uncertainty due to tariffs are still major factors in the freight market. Here are some tips for managing the volatility:

How to navigate the current freight market:

• Compare at least a few quotes and modes to make sure you are getting the best cost and most efficient service possible.
• Buffer your freight budget and transit time for changes. Costs due to unforeseen delays or limited capacity can arise, so be prepared.
• Explore warehousing options to mitigate last-mile delays and additional storage ad delivery fees.

How small or midsize importers can plan for operational success on The Freightos Marketplace:

• Understand that delays and extra charges may arise. Freight forwarders are trying their best to move goods on schedule without additional fees, but in this unstable period, delays and additional charges can occur out of forwarders’ control.
• Consider which shipping mode is best for you right now. Ocean freight is typically far cheaper but has a significant lead time. If your transit time demands it, ship by air and you’ll have confidence in the transit times.
• Book early if you can. As soon as your goods are ready, book your shipment to get goods moving as quickly as possible.
• Communicate regularly with your freight forwarder. This is more important than ever – staying in touch means you’ll have a better handle on your transit time and stay on top of any changes that may arise.
• Make sure that you have the manpower to accept your goods upon arrival. This will minimize delays.

How to stay informed: 

• Check out our daily FBX ocean rates index to help you stay on top of freight rates in 2025.
• Keep up to date on the industry with our weekly freight market update.
• Check out our weekly short podcast on freight trends and how they affect importers.

As always, we at Freightos.com are here to help. Please reach out if you have any questions or concerns.