2025 Peak Season Shipping Came (and Left) Early: What SMB Importers Need to Know

If you’re a small importer, you’ve probably noticed that this year’s peak shipping season has felt…off. The usual rhythms are out of sync: space tightened early, rates surged – then slid – and timelines got scrambled. Whether you planned ahead or got caught off guard, you’re likely dealing with uncertainty – and you’re not alone.

Let’s break it down. Read on to learn why peak season showed up early and left in a hurry, and how shifting tariffs, global tensions, and residual challenges from years of supply chain upheaval are shaping the months ahead.

What Happened to Peak Season?

Traditionally, peak season for ocean freight kicks off in July and runs through October, as retailers stock up for back-to-school and the holiday rush. This year, things moved way ahead of schedule.

Here’s a snapshot of how it unfolded:

• April-May: Uncertainty around U.S. tariff deadlines prompted importers to frontload shipments early. Many feared higher duties on goods from China and transshipped products, such as Chinese components finished in Vietnam or Mexico.
• June: Demand and rates hit their peak, just as space became hardest to find. According to Steve Nguyen of Ring Vietnam, demand surged in April and May but eased by mid-June as frontloading wrapped up.
• July: Booking volumes dropped. Many carriers had planned mid-month General Rate Increases (GRIs), but demand just wasn’t there to support them.

In short: This year’s peak season happened early, was relatively short, and may have already passed by the time you’re reading this.

Peak season started in early May, driven mostly by tariff uncertainty & front loading. Starting mid-June, when a majority of front loading had already taken place, rates and space decreased, continuing well into mid-July. We expect this trend will continue until tariff negotiations are finalized.

-Steven Nguyen, Vice Director, Ring Vietnam

Why Peak Season Was So Early: Tariff Whiplash

The biggest driver of early shipping this year? Tariff uncertainty.

With multiple trade deadlines approaching and little clarity from policymakers, SMB importers were left trying to make major supply chain decisions with limited visibility into how and when new duties would hit. Many chose to frontload shipments – moving goods earlier than usual – not because they wanted to, but because the alternative could mean getting hit with steep new duties or delays at customs. For smaller businesses with tighter margins and fewer buffers, the stakes were especially high.

Here’s what SMBs were facing:

• August 1 Tariff Deadline: U.S. tariffs on goods from China, Mexico, and the EU are set to increase or be re-applied. That includes a 30% duty on some goods from Mexico and Europe, and more scrutiny of products with Chinese components, even if they’re finished elsewhere.
• Transshipment Risks: Importers relying on alternative manufacturing hubs like Vietnam and Mexico are also under pressure. The U.S. is targeting Chinese contributions to finished goods made in these regions.
• Cash Flow Concerns: As Robert Khachatryan, CEO of Freight Right pointed out, SMBs don’t just lose margin when tariffs go up – they tie up precious cash flow, paying duties well before they see any revenue.

Tariff uncertainty is paralyzing decision-making for many importers, especially small and mid-sized brands that can’t easily absorb a 25–40% duty hike.

– Robert Khachatryan, CEO, Freight Right

What’s Going on With Freight Rates?

Let’s talk numbers. Shipping rates can tell you a lot about demand – and confidence.

Ocean Rates

Asia–U.S.

• West Coast: Rates dropped from $6,000/FEU in mid-June to ~$2,325/FEU in July, a 60% slide. That’s 70% lower than this time last year.
• East Coast: Down to $4,100/FEU from a June high of $7,100/FEU, a 40% drop.

Carriers are responding with blanked sailings – canceling scheduled routes –  to try to prop up falling rates.

Asia–Europe 

• Northern Europe: Up 50% since May due to congestion but still 60% lower than last year.
• Mediterranean: Peaked in mid-June, now down 25%. For the first time since January, these rates are on par with Northern Europe.

Air Cargo

Despite looming tariff deadlines, air cargo hasn’t surged.

• SE Asia–US: Holding at $4.84/kg
• China–US: Down 7% to $5.17/kg
• South Asia–US: Down 4% to $4.55/kg
  

The expected air freight rush hasn’t materialized – at least not yet. Even with the August tariff deadline looming, rates have stayed relatively stable. But for many SMBs, air is still too expensive to justify unless the goods are high-margin or urgent. Instead, some are holding off in hopes of a last-minute tariff extension, while others are banking on earlier ocean shipments to carry them through. 

How Should SMB Importers Think About This Year’s Peak Season?

As Amit Chen, CEO of Unicargo, put it: “Peak season used to feel like a wave. Now it’s more like a stock chart– unpredictable, volatile, and driven by viral trends and shifting platform algorithms.”

Here are a few ways to make sense of this moving target:

1. Build Buffers

Small importers are starting to position inventory closer to fulfillment centers, build regional buffers, and diversify routes. Consider building a buffer – not just for demand, but for supply shocks.

2. Model for Tariff Risk

Even if you’re not sourcing from China directly, your goods might include Chinese components. Model worst-case landed costs, audit your supply chain’s origin documents, and double-check HS code classifications to avoid penalties.

3. Expect Short-Term Volatility

If you didn’t frontload this year, you’re not alone. Some importers, especially smaller ones, have taken a wait-and-see approach, hoping for clarity or extensions before making big moves. But according to Robert Khachatryan, now’s the time to prepare for a possible last-minute surge as the August 1 deadline approaches.

Robert points out that the real near-term threat may not just be new tariffs – but increased enforcement around transshipment and the cash flow hit of duties paid upfront. For SMBs, that means modeling worst-case landed costs and tightening up compliance before penalties hit.

SMB Compliance Checklist

✅ Audit origin documents for transshipped goods

✅ Review and clarify your HS code classifications

✅ Benchmark rates across multiple providers to make sure you’re saving where you can

What’s Next Following Peak Season?

A few trends to keep an eye on:

Tariff Escalation

The U.S., EU, and Mexico are all ramping up trade tensions. Retaliatory tariffs are on the table.

Carrier Capacity Cuts

Carriers are slashing transpacific space – up to 25% in some lanes – to stabilize rates.

Resilience Investment

Despite all the short-term turbulence – early frontloading, falling rates, and tariff confusion – there are clear signs that long-term confidence in global logistics remains strong. For example, Syria recently signed an $800 million deal for port development, following other major infrastructure projects, signals of post-conflict rebuilding efforts aimed at re-entering global trade flows. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways just placed a massive order for up to 210 Boeing widebody aircraft, including cargo planes, a move that reflects long-range optimism about air freight demand and global mobility.

These developments signal that the logistics world is actively building more capacity, expanding trade routes, and preparing for future growth. That kind of investment is what enables more competitive rates, better global coverage, and greater resilience against the next round of disruptions.

While the present may feel unpredictable, the system is evolving in ways that should benefit smaller importers in the long run.