Lunar New Year 2026: Booking Activity Is Quieter So Far – But the Peak Is Still Ahead

Lunar New Year 2026 falls on February 17, and for importers, the calendar always feels tighter than it looks.

With just under three weeks to go, early booking data shows a slightly quieter start than in prior years. But historically, that doesn’t mean the pre-holiday rush is over – in fact, the busiest booking window typically comes later.

Looking at actual booking behavior (not just planning activity) helps clarify what’s happening now – and what’s still ahead.

What Typically Happens Before Lunar New Year

We analyzed thousands of US small business US importers’ bookings on the Freightos Marketplace from China and Southeast Asia in the weeks leading up to Lunar New Year from 2020-2025.

The pattern over these years is remarkably consistent:

• Importers begin planning early, with search activity ramping up several weeks before the holiday
• Actual bookings peak later, most heavily 7–14 days before Lunar New Year
• In the final week before the holiday, bookings drop sharply as factories close and capacity disappears

Here’s the pattern broken down week by week:

• 21–28 days before LNY: Typical activity levels
• 14–20 days before LNY: Searches +12%, bookings +18%
• 7–14 days before LNY: Peak window – searches +33%, bookings +30%
• 0–6 days before LNY: Bookings drop by more than 50%

In short: planning pressure builds earlier, but most shipments are actually booked closer to the holiday.

What 2026 Looks Like So Far

With data through January 26, 2026 shows a slightly quieter start than prior years:

• Search activity is down ~9.8%
• Booking activity is down ~17.1%
• Some individual days are unusually busy (up to +70% compared to prior years), while others are much quieter

One major wild card at play this year is tariff uncertainty, which may be suppressing demand or delaying decisions. Our recent importer survey showed higher costs from China pushing some shippers to slow or rethink volumes – which likely explains part of the softer early numbers.

Crucially, though, we’re still ahead of the historical peak booking window.

Why “Quieter So Far” Doesn’t Mean “Too Late”

Planning activity often ramps up weeks before Lunar New Year, but booking activity tends to peak later.

By January 28, we’re past the initial planning surge, but we haven’t reached the main booking rush yet.

For 2026, that peak window is expected around February 3–10.

So if you haven’t booked yet, you’re not behind. You’re still in the phase when most importers historically actually pull the trigger.

What to Do Now

Don’t panic.
Lower early volumes don’t mean the window has closed – only that demand is softer so far.

Watch the calendar.
Historically, the busiest booking period is still ahead, 7–14 days before Lunar New Year.

Plan normally – with slightly less crowding.
If volumes remain lower than peak years like 2024, competition for space may be somewhat less intense. But the familiar surge-and-drop pattern still applies.

And remember: the final week before Lunar New Year is rarely a bargain. Lower activity then reflects closed factories and exhausted capacity – not better conditions.

The Bottom Line

Lunar New Year shipping is still predictable.

So far, 2026 is running a bit quieter, likely due to tariff pressure and cautious demand. But historically, the heaviest booking activity comes closer to the holiday – and that window hasn’t arrived yet.

In practical terms: the main booking rush is still ahead.