The much-needed 90-day general tariff reprieve that President Trump announced on April 9th is already half spent, while the 90-day China reprieve, announced on May 12, still has until early August.
The paused on the China tariffs reduced duties from 145% to a still-high 30% on most products, leaving importers until August 14 in what has now become a normal state of wariness and confusion.
So yes, a breather, but one inhaled at sprint pace.
Small-business sentiment
In mid-May, Freightos surveyed more than a hundred small and midsize U.S. importers to gauge how they’re coping with the Trump tariffs impact. The results paint a picture of businesses stretched to the end:
- 80% feel as worried or more worried than in April, even with the 90-day China-US pause.
- 42% report a “perfect” 10/10 on a scale of how disruptive the tariffs have been, with an average rating of 7.5/10.
- Nearly a third are actively considering U.S. sourcing (but for now, it’s only a consideration, with only 6% having shifted production)
Of course, for many, even the 90 day delay isn’t much of a reprieve:
As Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, shared in a recent webinar:
“Thirty-percent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are still higher than anything we saw in the first Trump term—and they now cover 100% of exports.”
Responding to the survey, one small business owner called the duties “an existential threat,” while another admitted being just “upside-down on a few deals.”
Anxiety isn’t easing; it’s calcifying.
Bullwhip in real time
Even a dream resolution for many of these importers, in which all the tariffs simply disappear, would still mean rough months ahead.
April’s pause in China bookings starved sailing schedules, with carriers cutting one in every five sailings. The May rebound is now forcing those same lines to chase equipment and reopen services, a classic bullwhip that threatens summer congestion.
As many businesses experienced during COVID, bullwhip effects basically mean that supply chain shocks don’t just resolve, instead frequently leading to reverberating echos of progressively smaller supply and demand imbalances.
Main-street coping with Trump Tariffs
Businesses have not been complacent.
Fifteen percent have switched suppliers and some 30% are contemplating reshoring to the US. In reality, however, only a handful of companies have shifted production back to the US (7%). This may be the uncertainty of what the tariff policy will be or how long it will last, making businesses hesitant to invest in big strategic changes.
In the meantime, contending with the shipments that were delayed prior to the tariff delay is top of mind.
About half of these businesses (47%) froze their imports during the tariffs, resulting in many now fast-tracking holiday orders that may face higher tariffs in mid-August. This could bolster freight rates.
Many importers are now reviewing their import duty calculations to understand the full impact of both current and potential future rates. At the same time, a quarter of SMB importers (26%) front-loaded shipments (ie accelerated shipments to ensure they reached the US prior to the the tariff roll out), creating enough of a buffer that they don’t need to ship goods as urgently.
Muted Memorial Day Tariff Impact
One positive take is that it appears, for now, that the businesses do not believe the tariff impacts have trickled down to consumer spending. Businesses believed that Memorial Day sales would remain mostly intact – the average impact score was 4.3/10 with about one-third describing the tariffs are potentially being highly disruptive to holiday sales.
The Bottom Line of the Tariff Freeze
The pause buys time, not clarity. Without a stable playbook, SMB importers will keep pivoting—each pivot sending fresh ripples through an already-stressed supply chain. For companies that rely on shipping from China to the USA, this uncertainty makes planning exceptionally difficult. As one importer put it:
“[There is] no way to plan ahead. With daily changes and confusion—we couldn’t know what would happen next and what we should do about pricing.”
Small Business responding to May survey
FAQ: Quick Answers About the Trump Tariffs Pause
Q: What happens after the 90-day tariff pause expires?
A: After August 14, tariffs on Chinese goods are scheduled to return to 145% from the current 30% rate, unless further policy changes are announced.
Q: How are small businesses adapting to the current tariff situation?
A: According to the recent Freightos survey of 109 small business importers, 15% have switched suppliers, 30% are considering reshoring to the US, though only 7% have actually shifted production domestically, and some 48% are accelerating shipments as a result of the temporary reprieve.
Q: Are the current tariffs affecting consumer prices?
A: While businesses report significant disruption (7.5/10 average impact rating), most don’t anticipate major effects on consumer Memorial Day spending.
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