Two weeks out – here’s what you can still do to make it count.
Black Friday is almost here – and if you’re a small importer, you’ve probably already done everything you can. The containers are booked, the shelves are stocked (mostly), and now you’re just hoping everything shows up when it should.
But even in these last couple of weeks, a few small moves can make a real difference – especially if you’re watching inventory levels, juggling late shipments, or debating whether to switch to air.
We pulled together insights from Steve Nguyen, Vice Director of Ring Vietnam, a freight forwarder on the Freightos Marketplace, and the latest Freightos Baltic Index data to help you make the most of these final days before Black Friday.
1. Know When to Switch to Air
If your orders are already en route, you’ve done the hard part. But if you’re worried about running short on a few key items, air freight can still be worth considering for small, high-value replenishments.
“SMBs should consider switching to air freight when ocean transit times – including customs and warehouse processing – can no longer meet your must-be-in-stock date for Black Friday or late-Q4 sales,” Steve advised. “Compare the cost of a stockout against the freight cost. If the lost sales and customer churn outweigh the air premium, air becomes the smarter move.”
Air rates are high – around $6.30/kg on China–U.S. lanes this week – though still below last year’s peaks. For most shipments, the cost difference will be steep, but for a handful of fast-selling or high-margin products, the math may still work.
2. Book Air Freight Quickly But Don’t Panic
This year’s air freight peak season is picking up but largely manageable – and that’s good news for importers looking to move last-minute inventory.
“We’re seeing steady growth, but not the dramatic spikes from the pandemic years,” Steve explained. “Demand is up roughly 3-4% year-on-year, driven by e-commerce and time-sensitive goods. Capacity is holding, though some Trans-Pacific lanes are tightening.”
There’s still space available for smaller shipments, but prices can shift quickly as carriers fill up major Asia-U.S. routes. If you’re considering air, move fast. And while you’re searching for rates, stay flexible – small tweaks like choosing a different airport or route can help you find better rates and shave days off delivery times.
3. Build In Buffer Time for the U.S. Connections
This ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a 10% reduction in domestic flight operations because of air traffic controller shortages. That cut mostly affects passenger flights, but since about a third of U.S. air freight moves in passenger aircraft bellies, it’s putting some pressure on domestic capacity.
“The FAA’s 10% reduction in domestic flight operations has created ripple effects,” noted Steve. “With fewer flights, handling times can stretch out around major hubs.”
The good news: dedicated freighters and international flights remain unaffected, so the overall impact on air cargo has been minimal so far. The Freightos Air Index still shows intra–North America rates steady at $1.60/kg, meaning capacity is largely stable.
If you’re arranging domestic delivery after your goods land, plan for small hiccups rather than big delays. Confirm trucking or air transfers early to lock in space and avoid last-minute rate jumps. If timing feels tight, prioritize which products move first instead of waiting for the entire shipment to clear. And where possible, give your customers or warehouse teams a quick heads-up that transit times might shift by a day.
4. Plan Ahead While Tariffs Stay Steady – Even With Court Reviews Underway
After a year of tariff uncertainty and front-loading, the recent U.S.–China trade truce – including a 10-point reduction on certain duties and a one-year pause on new port-call fees – is giving importers a rare stretch of stability.
It’s not just China. Over the past few months, the U.S. has reached similar agreements with South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and other Southeast Asian partners, easing or postponing some tariffs and laying out broader trade-cooperation frameworks. Together, these moves are giving importers more predictability across major sourcing regions.
There is one caveat: the Supreme Court has begun reviewing the administration’s use of IEEPA as the basis for some of this year’s tariff actions. A decision could come soon, or it might not land until next summer. Even if the ruling goes against the White House, analysts expect only limited immediate impact, since the administration has other, more established legal channels to re-impose country-specific tariffs if needed.
For now, this means sudden tariff shifts are unlikely, and without the pressure of front-loading, has died down. That makes end-of-year and early-Q1 planning a little easier than it has been for most of 2025.
5. Look Past Black Friday and Start Planning for Q1
Black Friday may be the big headline, but it’s the weeks that follow that set the tone for Q1. Here’s some insight as you start planning for the new year.
Carriers raised rates in early November to counter low demand, but prices are already slipping again. With volumes expected to keep easing through December, ocean freight could become more affordable in early Q1, before Lunar New Year drives another round of pre-holiday rush.
“Low demand is already challenging carriers’ ability to maintain price increases,” noted Judah Levine, Freightos’ Head of Research.
For importers, it’s a good time to plan ahead. Factories across much of Asia will close for several weeks during Lunar New Year – starting in late January – which typically causes a short, sharp capacity crunch as shippers rush to move goods beforehand. Booking early, locking in rates, and finalizing supplier schedules now can help you avoid those bottlenecks and higher prices later.
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