Our July Global Freight Outlook market update webinar took a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets, focusing on ocean implications from renewed Strait of Hormuz closure, the early container peak season and what it may mean for the coming months, the latest in tariffs and the trade war, and how air cargo is adapting to more de minimis changes and easing jet fuel prices.
Watch the full recording and read key takeaways below:
Key Takeaways:
• Ceasefire collapse, Hormuz back to standoff: The recent MoU breakdown has sent the Strait of Hormuz back to the pre-ceasefire status quo: Iranian attacks on vessels not using its channel and the US reimposing its blockade. President Trump has stated the US will take control over the strait, though questions surround the feasibility of securing the strait militarily.
• Fuel costs rising: Crude and bunker prices have eased since May, and moved close to pre-war levels during the ceasefire, but have climbed about 10% since the collapse. Further upward pressure is likely, but supply-side adjustments made even before the ceasefire make a return to April’s spike levels unlikely. A Red Sea return may also be pushed further away, with reports Iran may reactivate the Houthis to resume tanker attacks there.
• Peak season demand – not fuel costs – ocean driver, but for how long? Ocean peak season arrived early but may already be fading: Multiple converging pressures — the tariff deadline, Q3 BAF increases, rising manufacturer costs, and Red Sea-related longer Asia-Europe lead times — drove east-west rates up sharply since mid-May, with transpacific rates up $4k/FEU and Asia – Europe up $3k/FEU in this span. Carriers have more increases planned, but some signs point to demand already being past its peak. Worsening congestion however could keep rates elevated even as demand eases.
• Air cargo recovery continues, AI hardware the new growth engine: Global air capacity and volumes continue to climb after the March dip, though not yet back to pre-war trajectory. Jet fuel has eased to about 25% above pre-war by early July but is now climbing again with the ceasefire collapse. The EU’s July 1st de minimis suspension is causing less disruption than the US experience, likely because e-commerce platforms applied lessons from the transpac changes last year. And more signs point to the data-center rush being a major driver of freighter demand.
Host
Judah Levine
Head of Research, Freightos Group
Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.
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