In this month’s Freightos market update webinar, we took a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets, focusing on implications from the war in Iran, and trade war impacts from the recent Supreme Court decision and reactions.Â
Watch the full recording below:
Key Takeaways:
- Iran war and Strait of Hormuz: contained for containers, but watch fuel and surcharges: The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for nearly two weeks since the start of the war, critically disrupting ~20% of global oil flows but only ~2–3% of container volumes. The closure is causing localized congestion at alternative ports (Oman, India, Sri Lanka) and some equipment imbalance, but broader operational disruption remains limited. The bigger concern: carriers are already announcing emergency fuel surcharges of $150–$400/FEU across all lanes as oil prices climb. And they will start rolling out significant GRIs and surcharges on non-Gulf lanes. Whether these non-Gulf surcharges stick will depend on how long the war lasts. Governments in China and India are already pushing back.
- Houthi threat reverses Red Sea return: Carriers that had begun tentatively returning services through the Red Sea (CMA CGM, Maersk/Gemini) have re-diverted all vessels away from the Southern Red Sea after Houthi threats to resume attacks, marking a big step backward from the staged Suez return that had been building since October.
- Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA, but uncertainty remains: The Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs in late February. The administration responded with Section 122 10% global tariffs expiring July 24th. A promised increase to 15% for select countries has not yet materialized. Section 122 is already facing legal challenges, and the USTR says Section 301 investigations are underway to replace IEEPA tariffs before the July deadline.
- Frontloading looking unlikely: NRF projections show return to seasonality: Despite the temporary tariff reduction reports of front-loading ahead of the July deadline are limited. NRF ocean import projections released post-decision are essentially unchanged from pre-decision forecasts, with 2026 volumes tracking back to 2024 levels and showing a return to normal seasonality.
- Air cargo hit harder than ocean: Gulf air carrier hubs are globally significant: Unlike containers, the Gulf hosts hubs for Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad (~13% of global air cargo capacity combined), making the war’s airspace closure impact immediate and broad. Airports across the region were shut in the first week; Emirates has since resumed >50% of flights via safe air corridors, but Qatar’s Doha hub (~600 flights/day) remains fully suspended. Air rates spiked: China–North America +20%, China–Europe +16%, and Southeast Asia to North America +50%, to Europe +65%. Some rate easing has begun as UAE hubs partially reopen, but with Qatar still offline the market may still be facing a challenge.
Speakers
Judah Levine
Head of Research, Freightos Group
Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.
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