In this month’s Freightos market update webinar we took a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets, focusing on implications from the continued Strait of Hormuz closure, trade war developments, and peak season expectations.
Watch the full recording and read key takeaways below:
Key Takeaways:
- Two months into the Strait of Hormuz closure, Gulf-bound containers are moving via established alternatives but with ongoing congestion, delays, and sharply higher costs. The broader market remains operationally unaffected.
- Fuel costs are the main market-wide impact, still running about 65% above pre-war levels despite easing from March highs. Carriers are passing costs on, but overcapacity and slow season demand are limiting how much of their announced GRIs and surcharges are sticking, with results varying by lane – up on the transpacific, about level, but elevated, for Asia – Europe.
- Fuel availability is a growing concern. For ocean, bunker supply is tight in places but not yet critical, though a prolonged closure could force slow steaming and blank sailings, reducing capacity and pushing rates higher.
- Jet fuel prices and availability are having bigger impacts, with many carriers canceling flights on unprofitable lanes, and adjusting routes to access fuel, especially when servicing South East Asia.
- The US Court of International Trade invalidated the Section 122 10% global tariffs in place till July but the White House has appealed and expects it to remain in place until new Section 301 tariffs are installed.
- Air cargo capacity is recovering from the steep drop at the beginning of the war but is not fully back: Global air capacity fell 5% year-on-year in March, though Asia-Europe direct capacity increased as other carriers added flights. The Freightos Air Index is now 30% above pre-war levels, with South and Southeast Asia lanes to Europe and North America among the hardest hit.
