This month’s Global Freight Outlook webinar took a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets. We focused on diverging transpacific and Asia-Europe ocean peak season trends, typhoon-driven port congestion, and impact on spot rates, Panama Canal restrictions and outlook for the rest of the year, trade war developments, air cargo volume and rate trends, as well as Q4 peak season predictions.
Watch the full recording and read key takeaways below:
Key Takeaways:
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Hormuz escalation continues, fuel costs rise: Fresh Iranian and US strikes pushed crude above $100/barrel for the first time since May and bunker fuel back to 60% above pre-war levels. But container market disruption remains limited to Gulf-bound cargo.
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Carriers returning to Red Sea despite risk: Sea Intelligence estimates 19% of Asia – Europe volumes are now back through the Red Sea, via 3 of 4 alliances as the economics of Cape diversions change with higher fuel costs, and as worsening port congestion has carriers looking for ways to speed things up.
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Port congestion increasingly chronic: Five-plus typhoons since July have caused severe congestion at several major Chinese ports. Rhine drought conditions and brief strikes in the Netherlands and Germany are adding North Europe delays. But even before these Maersk’s CEO says congestion is becoming entrenched as volume growth outpaces port capacity increases.
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Panama Canal restrictions moderate – for now: Low May–August rainfall and a coming El Niño prompted the Canal Authority to reduce daily transits and lower draft limits in September. But current steps and indicators may mean that water levels are more manageable than during the 2023/24 drought – at least for now.
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Transpacific container rates still high while Asia-Europe cools: An early peak season start lifted both lanes sharply from May till July. But Asia-Europe has since pulled back while transpac prices remain elevated – possibly reflecting continued ordering after the expected post-July tariff spike did not materialize, IEEPA refunds enabling lower retail prices and higher orders, and growing data center hardware volumes moving by ocean. Still-elevated rates – even for cooling Asia – Europe prices – reflect congestion playing a role.
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Air cargo growing even in slow season, AI hardware the new driver: Global air volumes are up 4% year-on-year through July according to IATA, with transpac up over 9% despite e-commerce’s diminished role as volumes from AI hardware and data center components from Southeast Asia grow. Jet fuel prices well above pre-war levels remain a driver of elevated air cargo prices across lanes.
Your Expert Hosts
Judah Levine
Head of Research, Freightos Group
Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.
