In this month’s Freightos market update webinar we took a data-driven look at the latest in the international ocean and air freight markets, focusing on implications from the war in Iran, trade war developments, and updates on IEEPA tariffs.
We explored:
- White House steps to restore IEEPA tariffs as refund process unfolds
- Scenarios for possible Iran war impacts via Strait of Hormuz closure
- Air cargo implications from Gulf carrier disruptions, and recovery updates
Watch the full recording and read key takeaways below:
Key Takeaways:
- Strait of Hormuz operational implications remains mostly a Gulf issue for ocean freight. Gulf cargo is moving – via landbridges from Oman, UAE alternatives, and Jeddah – but reliance on these alternatives is causing congestion, long delays, and sharply higher costs on those lanes. For the broader container market, operations remain smooth.
- But the spiking cost of fuel is being felt industry wide. Carriers have announced – and attempted to push through – emergency fuel surcharges, GRIs, and peak season surcharges across multiple lanes and rates are rising. But weak seasonal demand and continued overcapacity are limiting how much of those increases are sticking and preventing a severe spike for now.
- The temporary 10% US global tariff under Section 122 – now facing legal challenges – is valid through late July. A proposed move to 15% has not materialized, leaving many countries temporarily facing lower tariffs than under the prior regime.
- Despite that tariff reduction, front-loading has been limited so far, as shippers are staying cautious. US. import expectations point to a more normal seasonal pattern this year, but overall volumes may still be softer than last year.
- Air cargo is feeling the conflict much more directly than ocean: Gulf carriers account for about 13% of global air cargo capacity, and Middle East airspace closures disrupted a major east-west transit hub. Even with partial recovery by Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, capacity remains constrained, jet fuel prices have surged, and rates across the market – but especially on Middle East and Asia–Europe lanes – have risen sharply.
Speakers
Judah Levine
Head of Research, Freightos Group
Judah is an experienced market research manager, using data-driven analytics to deliver market-based insights. Judah produces the Freightos Group’s FBX Weekly Freight Update and other research on what’s happening in the industry from shipper behaviors to the latest in logistics technology and digitization.
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