This Freightos market update webinar provided a data-driven look at the international ocean and air freight markets and offered insights as to what 2026 might hold in store. We were joined by Oliver Esch, VP Commercial – Enterprise Shippers, at Freightos, who discussed what lessons were learned from the recent years of volatility, and how top shippers are adopting agile freight procurement and tendering strategies to build in resilience to their logistics supply chains even during tumultuous times.
Watch the full recording below:
Key Takeaways:
- More trade war uncertainty: While tariffs are set through November 2026, the Supreme Court’s pending IEEPA decision (coming anytime before July) risks triggering refund chaos and possible new front-loading. Recent US retreats from escalation (postponed lumber tariff hikes, tabled pasta tariffs) contrast with Trump’s new 25% tariff threat on countries trading with Iran, keeping shippers on their toes.
- Signs of ocean overcapacity: For the year, ocean rates on the major trade lanes in 2025 were 45% lower than in 2024 despite ongoing Red Sea diversions. Even so, carriers had some success with Q4 GRIs, and rates are climbing – though not as high as last year – ahead of Lunar New Year. This year will probably see lower rates over all and the push and pull of periods of (possibly very) low rates, followed by rate recovery from seasonal demand or capacity reductions.
- Trade war trade flows: US imports were flat in 2025 flat while European imports grew 7.4% YTD and global volumes up 4%; air cargo showed similar patterns with transpacific finally returning to +1.8% growth in November after six months of post-de minimis contraction.
- Procurement strategies for volatile times: COVID volatility shifted shippers from predictable annual tenders to continuous readiness — now using ABC lane segmentation (A lanes contracted, C lanes spot), frequent renegotiations, and index-linked pricing to maintain contract viability while reducing negotiation fatigue between partners who learned quarterly renegotiations exhaust both sides.
- Data centralization enables agility: Best practices require single-source-of-truth data lakes with APIs for instant tender launches, visibility tools for mode optimization, and AI-enabled autonomous C-lane procurement — shifting buyers from operational execution to strategic partnership management as “always tender-ready” becomes essential.
