November’s Freightos market update webinar presented the latest trends in the international ocean and air freight markets. We were joined by Jan Hoffmann, Global Lead for Maritime Transport and Ports at the World Bank, who offered insights from World Bank’s recently released Container Port Performance Index.
See the full recording and key takeaways below:
Key Takeaways:
- Recent trade-policy developments have eased near-term China‑US tensions and resulted in additional trade agreements. But despite the firming tariff landscape, the Supreme Court review of IEEPA‑based tariffs means significant uncertainty remains.
- Ocean capacity growth – even before a return to the Red Sea, which may be getting closer – is now the dominant driver of rates; but in October and again to start November, carriers were nonetheless able to manage capacity and push through GRIs. While volumes are mixed — US imports are down year‑on‑year but Asia – Europe and other non‑US flows are strong – diversification away from the US has meant overall growth.
- In air cargo too, trade war impacts – especially US de minimis closures – have triggered a sharp re‑routing of volumes to other markets, resulting in overall growth even as the transpacific contracts. Rates have shown a modest peak‑season uptick, with capacity shifts mitigating sharp rate fluctuations as vessels move to where volumes are growing.
- The World Bank’s 2024 Container Port Performance Index, measuring total ship time in port, showed that large exporting ports, ports with partnerships with global terminal operators, and those who invest in IT tend to perform better or improve faster than their peers.
- The string of recent crises (COVID, Red Sea, Panama Canal, etc.) have shown that better performing ports also perform better during a crisis, and demonstrated the value of maintaining spare capacity, as well as of investing in port‑call optimization.
