This Freightos market update webinar provided a data-driven review of 2025 for the international ocean and air freight markets and offered insights as to what 2026 might have in store.
We were joined by Neale Mahoney, Director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, who shared how this year’s trade war has impacted the US economy and global trade so far and what we might expect for freight markets as we move toward 2026.
See the full recording and key takeaways below:
• Late 2025 saw a firming tariff landscape including more announced US trade deals and a China-US deescalation. This relative stability should mean more typical season freight patterns for 2026. But the Supreme Court review of Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs creates some uncertainty for the coming year. The administration plans to institute alternatives if IEEPA is struck down, but if a low-tariff window opens it could respark frontloading.
• Ocean freight in 2025 saw continued Red Sea diversions (absorbing ~10% of capacity) mostly offset by accelerating fleet growth, with carriers using capacity management and GRIs to lift rates in Q4 during low demand stretches – with mixed success. A 2026 Suez return would initially cause congestion, then release significant capacity to pressure rates, while fleet deliveries will worsen oversupply regardless.
• Global trade proved resilient through diversification: Europe import volumes grew as did China’s – despite contractions for US container imports – as it focused on expansions through other markets, with 2026 likely continuing these trends.
• Air cargo adapted quickly to US de minimis changes that cut China-US e-commerce volumes sharply initially, with China shifting focus and carriers redeploying to other lanes and maintaining 3% global growth YTD. IATA expects 2.6% growth in 2026 though e-commerce growth is expected to slow.
• Neale identified clear signs of Q1 2025 US front-loading with inventory buildup then drawdowns, but whether broad restocking emerges in 2026 depends on consumer demand, labor conditions, and tariff resolution. Surprisingly low tariff pass-through of ~35% (vs. 60-100% previously) reflects front-running and weak demand, though tariffs still add ~0.5 percentage points to inflation, explaining consumer price frustration amid K-shaped spending patterns.
