China volumes fall as demand climbs from S. East Asia – April 29, 2025 Update

Weekly highlights

Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index

• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 1% to $2,328/FEU.     
• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) fell 2% to $3,395/FEU. 
• Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) stayed level at $2,337/FEU. 
• Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 5% to $3,082/FEU. 

Air rates – Freightos Air index

• China – N. America weekly prices increased 1% to $5.58/kg.
• China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 1% to $3.71/kg.
• N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 5% to $2.01/kg.

Analysis

With a minimum 145% tariff on all goods from China, many US importers are canceling orders and pausing shipments in hopes that direct negotiations – which have not officially begun yet –  between the two countries will result in deescalation and lower tariffs soon. 

In the meantime, reports on the drop in China-US ocean freight demand range from around 30% to more than 50% in the last few weeks. In response to falling volumes, carriers are blanking a significant share of China – N. America sailings and suspending services, with estimates that 28% of transpacific capacity will be removed to the West Coast for the coming weeks and 42% to the East Coast.  

Many China-reliant US importers may be well positioned to completely pause shipments from China – at least for a few weeks – because of inventory surpluses built up over the last few months via frontloading ahead of the expected tariffs.  If tariffs are not lowered within that window, US consumers could start seeing inventory shortages for some types of goods – especially items like toys, baby products and sporting goods, the majority of which are manufactured in China – and significant price increases as importers are forced to face very steep duties. 

That the ocean capacity reductions may be smaller than the drop in China – US ocean freight demand may reflect the recent volume increase out of other Far East countries whose major ports are often called on China – N. America container service loops.  Many shippers on these lanes are pulling forward volumes before the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for these countries expires in July, even as the White House seeks to streamline negotiations with many of these countries aimed at removing or reducing these tariffs before the deadline.

Some forwarders report that this increase in transpacific demand out of South East Asia – with some estimates putting bookings from SEA to the US up 20% in the last few weeks – is to some extent offsetting their drop in freight demand out of China. Carriers may shift some of the blanked China – US capacity to these lanes to meet that demand, though too much of a volume uptick could result in congestion, delays, and possible equipment shortages as volumes rapidly shift away from China. 

In terms of container rates, the rash of blank sailings should stabilize prices out of China moving forward even if volumes fall, though lane-level transpacific prices surprisingly fell only slightly from earlier in the month, even during the period before many sailings were blanked.  

Freightos Terminal data on the port-pair level, however, shows that on some lanes rates from China and those from some countries currently within the 90-day tariff pause have diverged.

While prices to Long Beach from both Shanghai and Vietnam’s Saigon Port increased more than 40% between the time of the reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2nd and their start date on April 9th, since then Shanghai – Long Beach rates have fallen more than 30% while prices out of Saigon have remained at their elevated level.

This effect has been much less apparent for air cargo. Tariff exemptions for electronics and the last chance for China e-commerce exports to enter the US via the de minimis exemption are combining to keep rates level and elevated, with Freightos Air Index China-US prices at $5.58/kg last week. The May 2nd suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods, though, is expected to have a dramatic effect on China – US air cargo volumes and rates.