New Tariffs Update

On April 2, President Trump announced substantial new tariffs set to take effect in the coming weeks. Starting April 5th, a global tariff rate of 10% will be applied to all goods imported into the United States that are not already in transit.

Additionally, reciprocal tariffs will come into effect on April 9th, targeting exports from nearly 60 countries with rates ranging from 11% to 50%. Chinese goods will face a cumulative tariff of 54%, building on earlier tariffs imposed this year. Specific Chinese products could see tariffs exceed 70%, escalating the trade war significantly. These tariffs are likely to increase costs for many SMB importers and exporters.

Further complicating supply chains, the suspension of the de minimis exemption, which allowed duty-free entry for shipments valued under $800 from China, will take effect on May 3rd. This change means higher compliance costs for low-value shipments and adds another layer of complexity for businesses dealing with e-commerce goods. As these developments unfold, it will be crucial for SMBs to stay informed and agile.

For more on the new Trump trade tariffs, click here.

Red Sea Shipping Disruption News & Updates

The global shipping industry remains significantly impacted by the Red Sea Crisis, which began in late 2023 and has persisted throughout the year.

Houthi attacks on vessels have forced rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, which has led to longer transit times on Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean lanes, and higher prices across the board: as we reach the end of 2024, ocean rates are double pre-crisis levels.

These disruptions also contributed to early peak seasons on both transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes.

2025 Red Sea Outlook

Carriers have begun returning to Suez Canal routes, and more are expected to gradually follow suit. Security through the canal is being increased.

For more about the Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions, click here.

Ocean Freight Market Updates, Shipping Costs, and Delays

In March, global shipping rates decreased by 24%, driven by a post-Lunar New Year demand lull, shifts from new carrier alliances, and capacity growth, despite rates remaining 60% higher than 2019 levels due to ongoing Red Sea diversions.

The downward pressure on rates this year is attributed to increased competition and capacity management issues from new carrier alliance implementations, coupled with fleet growth. Carriers are reducing capacity to Europe and have planned General Rate Increases (GRIs) for April, though there is skepticism about their effectiveness following March’s lackluster results. With Red Sea diversions potentially extending, the peak season for these lanes might start early, around May, as shippers prepare for longer lead times.

On the transpacific front, rates have similarly declined post-Lunar New Year. Both East Coast and West Coast routes have seen a 50% decrease since the holiday period, despite strong transpacific volumes due to frontloading over potential tariff concerns. Currently, rates are over 20% below 2024 lows, highlighting the effects of alliance remixing and global fleet expansion.

• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) fell 2% to $2,187/FEU. 
• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) rose 1% to $3,369/FEU.
• Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell 2% to $2,512/FEU.
• Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 9% to $3,228/FEU.

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Ocean Freight Market Forecast for 2025

There hasn’t been a dull moment in freight over the past few years and 2025 has already been off to a turbulent start.

New or Increased Tariffs on US Imports

President-elect Trump has announced new tariffs, including a global tariff, at least 54% on Chinese goods, tariffs on countries importers were using to avoid China tariffs including Vietnam and India, and a suspension of the de minimis exemption on Chinese imports beginning in May. These changes are roiling the industry, and more changes are expected in coming weeks.

Continued Red Sea Diversions

Carriers beginning to return to the Red Sea, but a full return will take time.

Carrier Alliance Reshuffling

The restructuring of carrier alliances is leading to fluctuations in freight rates and transit times. Rates are experiencing downward pressure due to increased competition and capacity management challenges, despite carriers proposing substantial rate increases, particularly on trans-Pacific routes. Additionally, the reconfiguration of shipping networks has resulted in short-term scheduling disruptions, potentially leading to irregular vessel arrivals and blank sailings.

Air Freight Market Update, Delays, Cost Increases, and Forecast for 2025

Freightos Air Index shows that air freight rates from China to the U.S. have climbed by around 15% recently, reaching over $5.25 per kilogram. Similarly, rates to Europe have increased by more than 20%, now nearly $3.90 per kilogram. This increase in rates from China to the U.S. occurs even as impending changes to de minimis regulations are expected to significantly decrease e-commerce shipment volumes. Some carriers are reportedly starting to pivot capacity to other routes in response to these expected regulatory shifts.

Air rates – Freightos Air Index

• China – N. America weekly prices rose 7% to $5.65/kg.
• China – N. Europe weekly prices fell 2% to $3.79/kg.
• N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 2% to $2.41/kg.

Amazon Shipping Costs in 2025

Keeping up with door-to-door pricing for Amazon FBA shipping can be a hassle. With data from thousands of weekly pricing points from freight forwarders, we’ve developed a weekly index of freight prices including for Less than Container Load (LCL), Full Container Load (FCL), and air cargo, from major export cities in southeast Asia to the most popular Amazon fulfillment centers in the US.

Want to know what the rates are instantly? Check out Freightos.com’s FBAX, the Amazon FBA freight index.

With data from thousands of weekly pricing points from freight forwarders, we’ve developed a weekly index of freight prices including for Less than Container Load (LCL), Full Container Load (FCL), and air cargo, from major export cities in southeast Asia to the most popular Amazon fulfillment centers in the US.

Read up on how Amazon sellers can deal with rapidly changing consumer demands as well as inventory challenges HERE.

When Will Shipping Costs Go Down?

In the current situation, many importers and exporters are wondering when they can expect freight rates and shipping prices to level off. The answer? Probably not yet.

But, despite potential delays and volatile freight shipping costs, there are a few steps importers can take right now:

How to navigate the current freight market:

• Compare at least a few quotes and modes to make sure you are getting the best cost and most efficient service possible.
• Buffer your freight budget and transit time for changes. Costs due to unforeseen delays or limited capacity can arise, so be prepared.
• Explore warehousing options to mitigate the effects of lowered demand and business restrictions in the US.
• Pay attention to the profitability of your goods and consider if a pivot could be worthwhile. Additionally, remember to factor in freight costs when assessing profitability.

How small or midsize importers can plan for operational success on Freightos.com:

• Understand that delays and extra charges may arise. Freight forwarders are trying their best to move goods on schedule without additional fees, but in this unstable period, delays and additional charges can occur out of forwarders’ control.
• Consider which shipping mode is best for you right now. Ocean freight is typically far cheaper but has a significant lead time. If your transit time demands it, ship by air and you’ll have confidence in the transit times.
• Book early if you can. As soon as your goods are ready, book your shipment to get goods moving as quickly as possible.
• Communicate regularly with your freight forwarder. This is more important than ever – staying in touch means you’ll have a better handle on your transit time and stay on top of any changes that may arise.
• Make sure that you have the manpower to accept your goods upon arrival. This will minimize delays.

How to stay informed: 

• Check out our daily FBX ocean rates index to help you stay on top of freight rates in 2025.
• Keep up to date on the industry with our weekly freight market update.
• Check out our predictions for freight market trends in 2025.

As always, we at Freightos.com are here to help. Please reach out if you have any questions or concerns.